Julian Nagelsmann has had the look of a future Liverpool manager ever since he burst onto the scene as a 20-something upstart at Hoffenheim in the late 2010s.
Amazingly still only 38, Nagelsmann surely has a long and successful career ahead of him, despite resigning as Germany national team manager on Friday.
His sudden availability comes as a surprise, given his contract with the DFB was set to run until after Euro 2028. But Germany’s disastrous round of 32 World Cup defeat against Paraguay changed things, and Nagelsmann has seemingly jumped before being pushed, with Jurgen Klopp in line to replace him.
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The shock turn of events leaves Nagelsmann without a club, having missed out on a market where he would likely have been in demand.
With Chelsea, Man United, Tottenham, Man City and Liverpool all changing their manager this summer or in the months before the end of the season, Nagelsmann would have had a shot at any and all. From a Liverpool point of view, is there a danger that, in Andoni Iraola, the Reds have appointed a manager who is a much bigger gamble than the former Bayern Munich boss?
Nagelsmann has a better record than Iraola
Despite being five years younger than Iraola, Nagelsmann is already a slightly more experienced manager than the Basque.
He has taken charge of a remarkable 352 matches with four different teams since joining Hoffenheim in 2015, posting an overall win percentage of 54.55%.
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Iraola is not too far behind, having also managed four different clubs across 341 matches. However, the 44-year-old’s win percentage of 38.4% is well below that of Nagelsmann.
Dig slightly deeper, though, and it is perhaps unfair to pit these two managers directly against each other based on overall stats alone, and when you compare their stints at relatively similar sized clubs – Hoffenheim and Rayo Vallecano – their records come out very similar.
Amazingly, the pair each took charge of 136 games at those clubs, with Nagelsmann winning just one more – 55 to 54. In terms of win percentage, the German posted 40.44%, with Iraola just behind on 39.7%.
Having managed Bayern Munich for almost two years, Nagelsmann’s record was always going to be better, and his win rate of 71.43% at the Allianz Arena was always going to skew things.
Meanwhile, Iraola’s best record to date came in his very first job, with Cypriot side AEK Larnaca, for whom he took charge of 29 games, winning 12, for a win ratio of 41.4% That will have to improve at Liverpool, but with better players and a more dominant team, it should.
Nagelsmann would have suited Liverpool
At a club like Liverpool, winning is obviously a very, very important aspect of any manager’s job. But it is not the only thing they will be heavily judged on.
Arne Slot may have felt safe enough in his position after guiding the Reds to a Champions League position last season, but it was ultimately the lack of direction, aggression and excitement in the way his team played which did for him.
That is part of the reason Iraola has been brought in, but it is fair to say that Nagelsmann should have fitted the bill as well.
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Though his Germany team looked sluggish, short of ideas and, frankly, very 2025/26 Liverpool like at the World Cup, he is more well-known for adopting a high-pressing, slightly frantic style of play.
It may not be Iraola-ball, but Nagelsmann certainly likes his teams to get up and in the face of the opposition.
This would have suited Liverpool, and that, coupled with his superior win percentage, and experience of managing an elite club in Bayern, and even a secondary club in RB Leipzig, would have made him an ideal candidate.
It would have been fascinating to see whether Liverpool would have considered Nagelsmann had he been available, or waited for him knowing that he would become free.
Iraola looks like a very good appointment, and fans are excited by what could be to come under his stewardship, but in Nagelsmann they would have had a trophy-winning manager who has proven himself at the top table before.
Should things go south with Iraola, maybe Liverpool already have their break-glass option ready.
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