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Opta supercomputer predicts most likely outcome of Chelsea vs Liverpool after Reds’ poor form

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Liverpool are set to face Chelsea in their next Premier League match.

At the moment, Arne Slot has his men sitting at the top of the table, but, since they lost against Crystal Palace last week, Arsenal are now just two points behind them.

Arsenal and Liverpool are the most likely teams to win the Premier League this season, but with the recent form they’ve been in, the Reds could end up losing their grip on the race.

Ibrahima Konate of Liverpool looks dejected after the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase MD2 match between Galatasaray A.S. and Liverpool FC at Ali Sami Yen Spor Kompleksi
Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty Images

This is why Saturday’s game against Chelsea could end up being rather important, especially since their first top-flight game after the international break will be a derby against Manchester United.

Opta’s supercomputer thinks Liverpool will edge past Chelsea and get the win

Chelsea have been in decent form this season, with players such as Joao Pedro carrying Enzo Maresca’s men on his back.

At the moment, the Blues have eight points to their name as they’ve won two games, drawn two and lost two.

Before Liverpool lost their last two outings, most expected them to easily cruise to a win against Chelsea.

However, now that they’ve been beaten twice, questions are starting to get asked.

But, according to Opta’s supercomputer, Slot’s men are still more likely to win the game than the Londoners.

The prediction has Liverpool’s chances of a win at 42 per cent, whereas Chelsea’s is sitting at 32 per cent, and then the odds for a draw are set at 25 per cent.

Position Team Played MP Won W Drawn D Lost L For GF Against GA Diff GD Points Pts
1 LiverpoolLiverpool6 5 0 1 12 7 5 15
2 ArsenalArsenal6 4 1 1 12 3 9 13
3 Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace6 3 3 0 8 3 5 12
4 TottenhamTottenham6 3 2 1 11 4 7 11
5 SunderlandSunderland6 3 2 1 7 4 3 11
6 BournemouthBournemouth6 3 2 1 8 7 1 11
7 Manchester CityManchester City6 3 1 2 14 6 8 10
8 ChelseaChelsea6 2 2 2 11 8 3 8
9 EvertonEverton6 2 2 2 7 6 1 8
10 BrightonBrighton6 2 2 2 9 9 0 8

Liverpool must get back to their best soon

It goes without saying that, on paper, Liverpool have one of the best teams in the world.

Players such as Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz are now among their ranks, and although things haven’t quite panned out the way they’d have wanted them to, their quality is undeniable.

It’s still early days in the 2025-26 season, so there’s obviously time for things to turn around, but if they leave it too late, their campaign could be over sooner than many would’ve hoped.

Arne Slot, head coach of Liverpool, looks dejected during the Premier League match between Burnley and Liverpool at Turf Moor
Photo by James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images

At the moment, it still feels likely that Liverpool could take the Gunners to the end regarding the Premier League title chase.

But if Slot doesn’t manage to shore up his defensive lines or get his team to start firing soon, things could turn sour rather quickly.