Data analysts at FiveThirtyEight have put a percentage on Liverpool’s Premier League title chances this Sunday. The Reds need a bit of luck.
Liverpool go into the final Premier League match week knowing that the title isn’t in their hands. They could beat Wolves 8-0 at Anfield and it might not be enough – Manchester City must drop points.
They’ll host Aston Villa, creating a very easy narrative as the Midlanders boast three former Reds. One of whom, in their manager, is as noteworthy as it gets.
They should have the motivation to force an upset, then and if they do, it’s over to Liverpool to get the job done. A Liverpool win and City dropping points – that’s the one realistic scenario here.
But what are the actual chances of that? Data analysis done by FiveThirtyEight has put a percentage chance on it.
Liverpool’s Premier League title chances
538 use a team’s performances across the season to give score them. They then judge the likelihood that they’ll beat another team’s score in each game. Do that for every remaining game and you can see the chances of every result.
And using that method, 538 believe Liverpool have an 18% chance of lifting the Premier League title at Anfield on Sunday. It’s a small one, then – under one in five – but far from impossible.
18% is the chance that both Liverpool beat Wolves and City don’t beat Villa. Though, there is the one very unlikely scenario where the Reds draw and City lose by six. We won’t put any money on that one.
For what it’s worth, 538 have Liverpool down as far more likely to win the UEFA Champions League. They give the Reds a 66% chance of success, mainly because they rate their defence far higher than Real Madrid’s.
But let’s be honest – no one’s settling for that. We’ll keep praying that Liverpool somehow bring home both.