It’s Liverpool vs Southampton in the Premier League today. Here’s why we might see quite an attacking lineup from the Reds at Anfield.
What we are happy to predict, though, is that Liverpool will set out to attack Southampton today. Obviously, the Reds usually do go at sides – it’s their ultimate strength.
In the Saints, though, Liverpool have an opponent who really, really won’t want a shoot-out.
Liverpool vs Southampton
Liverpool are the best-attacking side in the Premier League right now. They boast a ridiculous 35 goals in their 12 games, six more than anyone else.
But that only tells half the story. The difference would be even if Chelsea, the next-best scoring side, weren’t outperforming their expected goals (xG) by a ridiculous margin of 7.2.
While Chelsea are proving to be incredible finishers, though, Southampton are not. In fact, they’re the worst finishers in the Premier League by a wide margin.
Their xG this season is a respectable 16.7 – seventh-best in the league. They only have 10 goals, however, and that difference is rock-bottom.
In fact, they’re benefitting from having penalties in there. Take those away and Southampton are underperforming their xG by 7.2 – the anti-Chelsea.
Southampton, then, cannot score goals at an even halfway reliable rate. They’ve won just three of their 12 games, all by a 1-0 scoreline.
Essentially, if you score against Southampton, you’ll get at least a point. You’ll probably win.
And so it benefits Liverpool to attack vs Southampton today as you really don’t need to be particularly tight at the back. On top of that, the visitors can create their best chance at a result here by sitting back and playing for 0-0.
We think Klopp might name a fairly aggressive side and hand his players a license to push on, then.
Because if Liverpool can grab a couple of goals here, there’s little to no chance that Southampton can hit back. Few can contend with the Reds – let alone the Premier League’s worst finishers.