Liverpool head into their last match of the Premier League season a little more comfortable after Erling Haaland’s late equaliser for Manchester City against Bournemouth on Tuesday.
The goal may not have been enough for City to stop Arsenal from winning the title, but it did shift the landscape of Champions League qualification dramatically.
That changed again on Wednesday, when Aston Villa won the Europa League, to confirm that six Premier League teams could qualify for next season’s Champions League on the final day of the season.
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This could obviously be good news for Liverpool, but is there a scenario where the Reds can now finish sixth and still secure a spot in Europe’s premier club competition in 2026/27?
Liverpool cannot finish sixth and qualify for the Champions League
After Brighton lost at Leeds on Sunday, Liverpool cannot finish lower than sixth in the final Premier League table.
However, those prematurely celebrating a Champions League berth after Villa’s Europa League win should slow their horses.
The only scenario in which sixth place in the Premier League will qualify is if Aston Villa finish in fifth.
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Currently fourth, Liverpool are the only team who can overtake Villa and push them down a spot in the table. Six points behind the Villains, Bournemouth cannot jump two places.
It will be difficult for the Cherries to move into fifth, even, and they will need to beat Nottingham Forest handsomely and hope that Liverpool lose by an equally big margin at home to Brentford. With a current goal difference swing of six in the Reds’ favour, this does look unlikely.
But, hypothetically, if Bournemouth did overhaul Liverpool into sixth position, that would mean Villa staying in fourth, no matter their result away at Manchester City.
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As a result, if Liverpool end up having a dismal day on Sunday and sit in sixth at full-time, that will mean Europa League football for Arne Slot next season.
Bournemouth fans should be hopeful, though, as there is still a realistic scenario in which they can qualify for the Champions League.
Should Liverpool beat Brentford – as they will be favourites to do at home – Villa lose to City by any scoreline, and Bournemouth win at the City Ground, Liverpool will be fourth, Villa fifth and the Cherries sixth. That would mean all three teams will end up in the Champions League.
Conversely, if Liverpool and City win but Bournemouth lose, Brighton can sneak into sixth with a win at home against Manchester United. There’s still plenty to play for, but the Reds could play their part in securing a historic day for either Bournemouth or Brighton.
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