Liverpool’s new chances of qualifying for Champions League after Aston Villa shared by Opta

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Liverpool’s chances of qualifying for the 2026/27 Champions League took a hit against Aston Villa.

From handing Chelsea their first point in weeks to losing 4-2 against Aston Villa, the last week has been a real mess for the Reds.

Unai Emery’s side secured qualification for the Champions League by beating Liverpool, but Arne Slot’s side have seen their chances of making it into the competition decline to 92.63%, according to Opta.

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Liverpool’s Champions League chances decline after Aston Villa

After failing to beat a managerless Chelsea, Opta’s supercomputer still gave the Merseyside outfit a 97.29% chance of making it into next season’s Champions League.

However, that figure has now declined by around five per cent after Slot watched his team lose their 12th Premier League game of the 2025/26 campaign.

The ball is now very much in Bournemouth’s court as they prepare to take on Manchester City this coming Tuesday.

A win against the Sky Blues would put them one point behind Liverpool ahead of the final gameweek of the season, which takes place next Sunday.

The Reds will take on Brentford at Anfield on May 24, with the Bees still chasing down a Europa Conference League or Europa League spot.

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Bournemouth, meanwhile, will end their season away to Nottingham Forest, who are now officially safe from relegation and will have nothing to play for on the final day.

In reality, it seems unlikely that the Cherries will be able to catch Liverpool, though, if only because they have to play City next.

The South Coast outfit have enjoyed a simply prolific season by their standards, but their record against the Sky Blues is poor.

In fact, in the 25 games they have played against the Manchester outfit, Bournemouth have drawn two and won just one; a 2-1 Premier League win in November 2024.