Liverpool are after a Quadruple but how likely is it? One data analysis looks at their Premier League and Champions League chances.
Liverpool are after a Quadruple this season as they find themselves fighting for three major trophies in May. They already have one in the bag, of course, with the EFL Cup victory against Chelsea.
But there are some massive games coming up. Tomorrow it’s Villarreal at El Madrigal – the Reds carry a 2-0 lead into their UEFA Champions League semi-final second leg.
After that? Tottenham Hotspur head to Anfield as Liverpool continue their duel with Manchester City. The Reds can only win their own games as they wait for Pep Guardiola’s side to slip up.
Some massive games, then, that require Liverpool to be at their best. These are the required levels when you’re competing for the biggest trophies, after all, and the Reds hope to clinch the lot.
But what, exactly, are their chances? Data analysis at FiveThirtyEight suggests one of the big trophies is easier than the other.
Liverpool’s chances as they chase Quadruple
FiveThirtyEight uses game data to build an idea of just how good a team is. They then take an average in the league and judge how many goals a team would score or concede on a neutral ground against that average. For Liverpool, they’d expect 2.9 goals and 0.2 against – exactly the same as City.
They then look at the chances of Liverpool winning each of their remaining fixtures, judging by their opponents’ ratings and where the match takes place. The end result suggests where a team will finish – and the percentage chance of each available position.
Liverpool can only finish in the Premier League’s top two, such is their lead over Chelsea. FiveThirtyEight then say that the Reds boast a 38% chance of lifting the title, with City naturally claiming the other 68%.
As for the Champions League, the analysis has the Reds as favourites. They have one foot in the final, of course, while everyone else faces a struggle just to get there.
Thus Liverpool are put at 51% likely to win a seventh European crown. That, of course, could change depending on their opponents in the final – and if they make it there.
There’s no analysis for the FA Cup final beyond FiveThirtyEight rating Liverpool as a better team than Chelsea. They certainly have them down as favourites, then.
And so overall, Liverpool’s Quadruple chances remain slim. They’ve got small chance of the Premier League title, while the Champions League is a coin-flip. Then they’re got to make sure there’s no FA Cup upset. It’s certainly not beyond the realm of possibility but this will be tough.
One game at a time. That’s all Liverpool can truly do.