Data analysis company FiveThirtyEight gives Liverpool a relatively small chance of winning the Premier League title this season. The Reds lag behind Manchester City.
After the chaos of last season, we’re all back to normal. Liverpool and Manchester City are battling for the Premier League title, no one else is really in the running, and neither team appears capable of dropping points.
Both contenders faced massive weekend games, too, where there was an expectation that one would slip. Liverpool faced Champions League contenders West Ham United at Anfield, scraping a 1-0 win. They rode their luck, however – the Hammers had some golden opportunities.
Then City hosted Manchester United. It was supposed to be a close game but Pep Guardiola’s side ran out 4-1 winners. Never count on United for anything.
So where does that leave us? Liverpool are six points back on City but with a game in hand. The two teams also have to meet, meaning both have things in their own hands.
Despite that, City appear to be big favourites to clinch the title this year. That’s according to data analysis from FiveThirtyEight.
Liverpool have small Premier League title chance
FiveThirtyEight use data to judge how a team is playing and then simulate the rest of the season. The result is a constantly shifting league table that gradually adjusts over time to give a strong prediction of the standings.
And with 10 games to play (or 11, in Liverpool’s case), City are the strong favourites to retain their crown. FiveThirtyEight give them an 80% chance of winning the Premier League title, with Liverpool holding on to the other 20%.
So in other words, Liverpool would win the title from this position 1 out of 5 times. Those aren’t great chances, all things considered, but crazier things have happened.
Funnily enough, FiveThirtyEight also rate Liverpool’s Champions League chances at 20%, too. Only City rate higher (27%) but the field for that trophy is much larger.
Liverpool, then, have a decent shot at winning a major trophy this season – if you trust the data. There’s even that small, tiny chance at both.
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