Liverpool are now second favourites to win the Premier League title. It’s the first time this season they’ve dropped that low.
This analysis comes from Euro Club Index. Here’s a little run-down of how they do it from their site:
“After each round in a League, the odds for the championship of the League are calculated, based on the actual standing and the match result probabilities for all remaining matches.
“For each team the expected number of points at the end of the competition is calculated, with the corresponding bandwidth. Also for each team the chance to become champion is calculated.”
By bandwidth, they mean how likely they are to be wrong. They could predict a team to finish on 81 points with a bandwidth of 6, for instance, meaning that result could fluctuate by six points in either direction.
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And in using their methodology, we have a new favourite for the Premier League title.
Liverpool have led the way all season, with their percentage chance rising over 60 around Christmas. Three poor results, however, see them plummet.
ECI have the Reds at a 31 per cent chance now – their lowest of the season so far.
As for the Premier League title favourites? Manchester City. They’ve got Pep Guardiola’s side at a 43 per cent chance, with Manchester United third on 16 per cent.
What RTK has to say
Look, Liverpool were at 60 per cent two weeks ago, so clearly this isn’t bang on. But it does reflect where clubs are at the moment.
City look dangerous and will go top if they win both games in hand. We know from experience that it would be difficult to catch them.
Liverpool look quite the opposite – they’re in their biggest slump for years. Since May 2018, in fact, and that came at a time when they prioritised the Champions League.
So as things are, we’d agree with the assessment here. Liverpool can change things around, of course, but they’ve certainly lost momentum for the first time this season.
They have to get it back quickly.