Martin King explains how Liverpool must become more consistent in order to be genuine Premier League title contenders this season.
Liverpool are buzzing with optimism ahead of the 2018/19 season amidst a very successful transfer window, which has so far seen Naby Keïta, Fabinho, Xherdan Shaqiri and, more recently, Alisson Becker sign for the club.
Whisper it quietly but the Reds are finally being talked up as genuine Premier League title contenders as each of the signings have addressed a major area of concern in their squad.
For every fear towards Liverpool’s goalkeeping situation, Alisson’s signing has brought relief, Fabinho and Keïta have bolstered a midfield unit that was once lacking, while Shaqiri has added some much-needed depth to the Reds’ attack.
Ability-wise, Jürgen Klopp’s men are undoubtedly a threat heading into next season’s league campaign, however, recent history proves that it’s not necessarily the most talented side who end up winning the title, but the most consistent.
Quick start, strong finish
Last season, Manchester City raced to the title under Pep Guardiola, achieving a record 100 points in their impressive campaign. The season before that, Chelsea lifted the title under Antonio Conte, who made a name for himself in English football at the first attempt.
Outside of squad or managerial quality alone, the recipe to these two sides’ success can be summarised in a simple phrase: quick start, strong finish.
Of each club’s first 15 games, a minimum of 12 had to be won to fully establish them in the title race, as City won 14 last season and Chelsea 12 before that. Of their last 15 games, a maximum of 12 had to be won to secure the title, with Man City winning that 12 and Chelsea managing 11 wins in their last run of 2016/17.
This then testifies that consistency in the opening stages of the campaign and towards the end of it is vital to ending the season on top and further proof can, frustratingly enough, be found in Liverpool’s own starts and finishes in Klopp’s two full seasons as Reds manager.
Both ended in fourth placed finishes but the underlying fact that Liverpool could’ve done far better in those two seasons counts as the most disappointing element of the German’s stint thus far.
Last season, the Merseyside club won just eight of their first 15 Premier League games and recorded the same total number of wins in their last 15.
Rewind further to 2016/17 and again they recorded the same total of wins in their first 15 games as their last: nine. Add to that a frustrating total of 16 draws from the 60 games played and it becomes clear to see just where Liverpool have stumbled in their attempts to win that elusive title.
A call for improvement
Liverpool’s mid-season form over the previous two seasons has been good enough that a top four spot could be secured, however, it’s their starts and finishes to the season that have proved the real difference between that and a title challenge.
Take, for example, how last season’s fourth-placed finish could’ve so easily been a top-two finish, had a loss against lowly Swansea City and draws against Tottenham Hotspur and relegated West Bromwich Albion and Stoke City been avoided – the gap between second and third amounted to six points.
Think further on just where Liverpool could’ve been had the five draws in their first 15 games of last season been turned into wins.
The Reds’ starts and finishes have been too poor for a side looking to challenge for the Premier League title, as they’ve either started the season looking seriously unprepared or ended it blowing hot and cold.
Consistency in these two stages of the season is an improvement they have to make, especially considering they keep their mid-season performances as good as they’ve been.
Favourable start to next season
Looking at their fixture list for next season, Klopp’s men can certainly make that a reality.
Of their first 15 games, seven are at home (where they recorded an unbeaten run last season) with only one of those seeing them play against a member of the Premier League’s top six in Manchester City – at least six home wins is a realistic target. The rest of their first 15 games feature eight away fixtures, three of which are against their top six rivals and five of which, though tough, are very winnable.
Win at least 12 of that combined 15 and Liverpool would’ve established themselves as genuine title contenders without a doubt and if results do go their way elsewhere, there could also be the small advantage of a points gap between them and the other contenders.
A similar standard must be maintained heading into their last 15 games. Put simply, this team cannot afford any more lousy off-days against opponents they should clearly beat, as that is not the standard of champions.
Thankfully, they are well set-up to achieve this with quality new signings. Their ability to record consistent results, regardless of the opponent will be crucial to their chances of success next year.
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